South Asia and Vulnerability to Climate Change
Paris Agreement concurs that the world must stop emitting GHG emissions to ensure that the temperature does not rise beyond 2 degree Celsius. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity at the moment. The impacts, however, are not uniformly felt across the world. South Asia is one of the important areas where climate change impacts will be felt. According to the recent Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI, 2020), a survey of 170 countries produced by the global risks advisory firm Maplecroft, South Asia and Africa are the ‘most climate-vulnerable’ areas of the globe. Many of the countries therein are designated by the index as being at ‘extreme’ risk over the next 30 years due to sea-level rise, burgeoning populations, and the increasing frequency and intensity of climatic events such as droughts, storms, and floods. Maplecroft’s Fiona Place notes that “[t]he most serious vulnerabilities to climate change are found in a group of developing countries with socio-economic systems ill-equipped to address development challenges such as food and water security, in addition to being burdened by unstable economies and weak institutions.” Very minor changes to temperature can have major impacts on the human environment, including changes to water availability and crop productivity, the loss of land due to sea-level rise, and the spread of disease.
South Asia – Poverty and Calamity
South Asia home to 1.5 million poor people is one of the poorest regions in the world. Besides poverty and inequality, the region is also prone to disasters and calamities. Floods, cyclones, storms, earthquakes, landslides, arsenic poisoning, erosion of soil are some of the common disasters South Asia regularly faces. Climate change and its adverse impacts are also being felt most devastatingly in South Asia(ADB, ND). Both geo climatic conditions, and the all-pervasive poverty and inequality of resources that render people incapable of recovering from the aftermath of the climate impacts makes climate change a serious threat.
Manifestations of Climate Change in South Asia
Climate impacts in South Asia are manifesting in various ways, including extreme events, and changes in climate variables. Cyclones, flooding, and droughts are becoming more intense and frequent, and at the same time climate variables such as temperature means, precipitation patterns are changing in a manner adverse to the historical forms adversely affecting the traditional sectors of livelihood such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries (MPRA, 2009). This makes people lose their livelihood and push millions into ever more acute poverty. It is important, therefore that adaptation actions are undertaken, which will far outweigh the consequences of not doing anything. India and Pakistan are particularly prone to droughts in the arid and semi-arid regions.
Extreme events such as cyclones, and storms are becoming extremely common. They were always persistent, but while now they have become less common, and their intensity has increased causing damage and destruction to the lives of the poor and the vulnerable, destroying their homes, livelihoods and other essential infrastructure such as health centres, water supply and communication infrastructure. The people are mostly poor and unable to recover from the shock of these extreme events.
In 15 November 2007, the notorious SIDR Cyclone(MPRA, 2009) hit more than 22 south and south-western districts of Bangladesh. It killed over three thousand innocent human-beings, beside thousands of animals, cattle, livestock. 2007 of Bangladesh partially destroyed world’s largest mangrove ecosystems of the Sundarbans. Thousands of Sundari tress were uprooted and damaged by the mighty cyclone and the natural coastal fencing for Bangladesh is now really under serious threat. Recently, Amid the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, India witnessed two cyclones, Tauktae and Yaas, leaving behind a trail of destruction across several Indian states. The year 2020 marked the first pre-monsoon cyclone in a century– Cyclone Amphan. Another Cyclone, Nisarga, hit the financial capital of India and was the second pre-monsoon cyclone after Amphan. As per IMD, India could witness many other pre-monsoon cyclones in the coming years.
Another very important impact is the rise of sea levels. The recession of Himalayan glaciers has led to reduction in the water provided by it to several rivers in the region(ADB, ND). These rivers are the life blood of these regions, water being provided by them being extremely crucial for the nearby areas. For instance, it impacts agriculture, fisheries and even production of hydropower in Nepal and Bhutan. Another impact of the very same phenomenon is rising sea levels. Cities such as Dhaka, Mumbai, Colombo and countries such as Maldives, Bangladesh and Srilanka face serious threat from sea level rise, so much so that their very existence can be threatened. Sea level rise leads to salt water intrusion into the river making it unfit for agriculture or drinking purposes. Even a marginal change in the global warming may cause a destructive situation for these regions due to sea level rise. Besides damaging economic interests for millions the other worst effect will be the influx of ‘climate refugees’ to other over-burdened areas of South Asia which will also jeopardize the economic, cultural and ecological balance of the region. The future of many areas of South Asia, particularly Maldives, southern coastal districts of Bangladesh and islands and coastal areas of India and Sri Lanka are uncertain.
According to the World Bank, Climate change may increase the possibility of epidemics like malaria by 12-27%, dengue 31-47% and schistosomiasis by 11-17%. Diseases like malaria, dengue, cholera, and hepatitis are some of the commonly found diseases in both urban and rural South Asia and the main reason for such diseases are floods, water poisoning, water logging, among others.
The change in climate means also impacts the biodiversity and ecosystem of the region, which leads us to a devastation and damage of the native ecosystem of the regions causing more problems for people than expected. The damage caused by cyclones and storms did a lot of damage to Sundarbans and also the lives of the people living in the nearby area, impacting the biodiversity of the area.
South Asia’s vulnerability is not just a product of the geo-climatic conditions, but also of the low human development indicators in the region. People poor in resources, with little in terms of savings and alternative livelihoods, live in poor housing conditions in mostly disaster-prone areas, in hugely dense populations. These factors amplify the shock caused by the disasters, or extreme events. The poor have little to recover from in terms of savings or alternative livelihoods. Function of poor socio-economic conditions and geo climate conditions makes the region one of the most vulnerable in the world and impacts not only the extent of the event but also number of people impacted.
South Asian Countries – National Adaptation Plans
It is important therefore that South Asian countries have robust – context specific adaptation strategies. Most nations have drawn up national adaptation plans, which help them deal with crucial climate issues of the region (ADB, ND). India has a National Action Plan on Climate Change , which covers several aspects of sustainable coastal protection and sustainable urban development, which include water and sanitation drainage solid waste management , and road and transport. Nepal completed its national adaptation plan in 2010, which emphasizes improving environmental management and sustainable natural resource use. In Srilanka, Mahindra Chintana 10 year plan recognizes importance of adaptation and emphasizes waste management, infrastructure protection zoning, rain water harvesting and adaptation measures to improve diseases and food security measures.
In Bangladesh, National Adaptation Plan was adopted in 2005 and updated in 2009. Bangladesh is also preparing strategic plans for improving resilience through measures such as fortifying embankments, raising coastlines, improving drainage, connectivity, improving climate water management and food security. Bhutan completed it National Plan of Action in 2006 and largely constituted integrated water resource management, and renewable energy access to the poor. Maldives prepared its Adaptation Plan in 2006, identifying 11 priority areas such as coral reef protection, protection in agriculture, fishery, aquaculture, food security and health. Adaptation to impacts of climate change is a vast area of untapped opportunities in Pakistan due to its multisector nature of economy; huge infrastructure needs; distinct climatic zones, ecological systems, and administrative arrangements. Afghanistan’s INDCs include Development and adoption of the Afghanistan Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Adaptation and Development of a system to monitor and assess vulnerability and adaptation to climate change
SAARC regional cooperation as a solution to the problem
South Asian Regional Cooperation can also play a very important role in the process. In the last meeting SAARC held, climate change and its impact on South Asia were discussed among the heads of states who stressed the role of regional cooperation and trade in fighting the problem together. Adaptation, mitigation, climate finance and technology were among many themes discussed. South Asian region needs to fight climate change together was asserted by the countries. Post Covid with economic recession striking many countries, the need to consolidate their economic and political power becomes an imperative but the geo political alignments at present leave this to be something to be desired. The help can especially be in the form of transfer of finance and technology, that can really help poorer countries in the region to not only develop state of the art adaptive technologies but have finance to do so. The money can be given in the form of low interest loans, grants, market rate loans etc. this will help the countries build climate adaptive infrastructure. Another way it can be done is by promoting regional trade in energy. This will help the countries not adapt but prevent further emissions of green house gases in the region, protecting the future from further warming and its implications. India is by far the largest economy of the South Asia region, one of the largest CO2 emitters in the world, and therefore has a crucial role to play in global climate action. South Asia has vast renewable energy potential and utilisation of solar and wind only could satisfy the growing electricity needs of almost all the countries in the regions many times over. Moreover, an energy system transformation towards renewables would have multiple benefits for sustainable development through increased energy security and access to modern energy for all, avoided air pollution damages and reduced or avoided water use, land contamination and environmental degradation.
References
- Asian Development Bank, ND, Climate Change in South Asia: Strong Responses for Building a Sustainable Future.
- Maplecroft, 2020, Climate Change Vulnerability Index.
- Munich Personal RePec Archive (2009), Climate Change and South Asia: What makes the region vulnerable.