In a recent press release by the presidential secretariate, Sri Lankan President Gotabaya directed the authorities that Sri Lanka should devise a plan to meet 70% of the country’s electricity demand to be met by renewable sources by 2030[1]. This is a drastic increase in the ambition level, and it has even exceeded the energy sector targets of the recently updated NDC of Sri Lanka. Along with the 2030 RE targets, there were statements issued by the government that Sri Lanka is aiming to achieve net-zero status by 2050.
Many factors will determine how soon the transition to 100% RE will happen , yet one of the most influential facts is the political will. In July 2021, the government of Sri Lanka officially submitted its updated NDC ahead of the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCCC). According to this Sri Lanka envisioned to reduce the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from the energy sector by 25% against the Business-As-Usual (BAU) trajectories (5% unconditionally and 20% conditionally). It is a 5% enhanced target for the energy sector against the first NDCs submitted by Sri Lanka in 2016. In less than 2 months of submitting the updated NDCs, the new policy level target of 70% renewable energy by 2030 has been announced by Sri Lanka which is a significantly high-ambition target for a small developing country.
In the recent past, renewable energy has become one of the most discussed and debated topics within the policymaking circles as well as among the political circles. The signs of moving towards a higher RE mix in the energy sector was apparent since 2006. The then government’s policy proposed to achieve a 38% RE mix target for electricity, comprising of10% non-conventional renewable energy (NCRE); small hydro, wind, solar and biomass sources and 28% large hydro ; conventional renewable energy by 2015[2]. The national energy policy has been introduced in 2008[3] formulated under leadership of the then President. By end of 2015, Sri Lanka exceeded the target by achieving 11% NCRE (including small hydro) generation and 37.5% from conventional hydro generation, making them total share of renewable energy as 48.7% of the total energy generation[4]. However, the first coal power plant was also commissioned during this period by the monopolistic utility of Sri Lanka, the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB). There were discussions on drawbacks in the renewable energy governance, which led to a major disagreement between the key agencies; Sri Lanka Sustainable Development Authority (SLSEA), Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) and Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB), on the feed-in tariffs for solar and wind. During this period provisional approvals were not issued for new wind and solar development since 2012[5].
Next policy milestone; “Sri Lanka energy sector development plan 2015-2025”[6], was formulated under, “general policy guidelines 2019”[7], which directed optimization of the share of renewable energy, under the new government formed in 2015. A policy level target was set to increase the share of renewable energy-based electricity generation from 50% that of the 2015 to 60% by 2020 and 100% by 2030. This target was not reflected in the Long Term Generation and Expansion Plan (LTGEP) of CEB (utility) as well as in the first NDC (2016) of Sri Lanka. However, the NDC targets included a target of adding over 900 MW of installed RE capacity in the country[8]. By end of 2020, after adding 161 MW RE capacity, the total RE generation in Sri Lanka settled at 36% total electricity generation of which the non-conventional renewable energy share was only 12% (including small hydro and rooftop solar)[9].
Both the presidential and general election manifestoes of the current government, which came to the power in 2019, has not given any targets of RE but a general policy on promoting RE. However, the new government has to face the emergence of the covid19 pandemic which exerted tremendous pressure on the country’s economy. The loss of revenue from tourism and major export sectors forced the government to bring in control on imports, especially the non-essential items. This was later seen gradually encroaching beyond the non-essential imports including fertilizer and agrochemicals. With the dwindling foreign reserves, the government also faced the challenge of spending on imports of fuels and coal. Being a country that imports 100% of its fossil fuel requirements, the exchange drain for non-renewables has an amplified impact on the trade balance. It is potentially a very high push factor for the government to move away from fossils and enhance its RE share in their path of post-pandemic recovery.
On the contrary to the progressive policy measures in setting RE targets, CEB’s Long Term Generation and Expansion Plan (LTGEP) 2025-2039, has predicted only 35% from renewable energy by 2039, which shows the level of ambition of the current policy target. There were some initial (and still are) speculations from the utility (the CEB) and the professionals attached to the CEB on the pragmatism of this high ambition target. The Vice President of PUSL, Prof Janaka Ekanayake have stated that lack of research infrastructure that will feed into a national policy, high investment cost and its short-term implications on the consumer, and negative perceptions of engineers responsible for, may stand on the way of Sri Lanka’s transition efforts[10]. However, now the CEB is revising its long-term generation and expansion plans to harmonize with the policy target of 70% RE by 2030.
Given this continuous commitment by leadership, while appreciating the progress so far, it is worth understanding what other factors are there that may slow down Sri Lanka’s progress from reaching this target.
Eng (Dr.) Vidhura Ralapanawe, an activist and a professional advocating for 100% RE, has lashed at the CEB engineer’s position, identify himself with the vision of being 70 % renewable and the carbon zero within the proposed time frames. In a context where shifting to renewable/net-zero electricity has become a global phenomenon, renewable energy is proven to be the cheapest generating option and expected to reduce further, technological developments are sufficient to handle the technological phobias that kept us in the darkness, global businesses had already started responding to Paris Agreement of 55% reduction GHG emission by 2030 and carbon neutral by 2050, and global trading has already begun internalizing carbon costs which will have major implications Sri Lankan exports, Ralapanawe questions the backwardness of the long-term generation plan[11].
In any case, now the policy decision of 70% RE by 2030 and net-zero by 2050 targets have been taken by Sri Lanka. The long-awaited political will is now in place for the renewable energy transition of the country and the energy plans are now being synchronized with the policy targets. This is a positive and progressive momentum as far as climate change and environmental perspectives are concerned. It is a challenging target, especially after a few horrendous waves of a global pandemic which placed the country on a very rough path of recovery. What is important at this stage is support and encouragement to achieve its ambitious energy transition targets.
[1] https://www.presidentsoffice.gov.lk/index.php/2020/09/14/70-of-electricity-demand-will-be-generated-using-renewable-energy-by-2030/
[2] https://www.thegef.org/sites/default/files/ncsa-documents/MahindaChintanaTenYearDevelopmentPlan.pdf, p69
[3] The Gazette of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka, No. 1553/10 – TUESDAY, JUNE 10, 2008 section 4.2 https://policy.asiapacificenergy.org/sites/default/files/National%20Energy%20Policy%20and%20Strategies%20of%20Sri%20Lanka.pdf
[4] Statistical Digest CEB, 2016, https://ceb.lk/front_img/img_reports/1531991854CEB_Statistical_Digest_Report_2016.pdf
[5] ADB, Sri Lanka Energy Sector Assessment, Strategy, And Road Map, 2019 https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/institutional-document/547381/sri-lanka-energy-assessment-strategy-road-map.pdf, p 53
[6] CEB Long Term Generation and Expansion Plan 2020-2039, https://ceb.lk/front_img/img_reports/1591174971Revised_LTGEP_2020-2039.pdf
[7] The Gazette of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka, No. 2135/61 – FRIDAY, AUGUST 09, 2019, http://www.energy.gov.lk/images/resources/downloads/national-energy-policy-2019-en.pdf
[8] NDC, 2016, https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Sri%20Lanka%20First/NDCs%20of%20Sri%20Lanka.pdf
[9] Statistical Digest CEB, 2020, https://ceb.lk/front_img/img_reports/1626946210CEB-Statistical_Digest-Form-2020-Web_Version.pdf
[10] Aruna (Sinhala News Paper), https://epaper.aruna.lk/Home/ArticleView?eid=1&edate=10/10/2021&pgid=58345 September 26, 2021, p5
[11] Eng. (Dr). Vidhura Ralapanwa, TOWARDS 70% RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY AND MORE BY 2030, The Official E-Newsletter of the Institution of Engineers Sri Lanka, Issue 58 – September 2021, https://iesl.lk/SLEN/58/Renewable_Electricity.php?fbclid=IwAR3nPYCTicK0NQIifT_h9ucOF_Q6M9skSv56uS03Fyab8HC__WSj7SLnKG0